Date of Award
2019
Document Type
Thesis
Degree Name
Doctor of Philosophy in Maritime Affairs
Specialization
Ph.D (Maritime Affairs)
Campus
Malmö, Sweden
First Advisor
Jens-Uwe Schröder-Hinrichs
Second Advisor
Michael Baldauf.
Abstract
The offshore wind energy sector (OWE) has experienced significant growth in the last few decades. Since the inception of the very first offshore wind farm (OWF) – Vindeby – in 1991, there have been major improvements in materials, structures, aerodynamics, hydrodynamics technologies, as well as substantial developments in installation, operations, maintenance and decommissioning strategies. These advances have led to a rapid increase in the numbers and sizes of both offshore winds turbines (OWTs) and OWFs, and driven down the cost of OWE generation. With further improvements imminent, and increasing societal popularity, the strong evolution of the OWE sector is predicted to continue for the foreseeable future. This is excellent news for our society, which is increasingly afflicted with the effects of climate-change. The continued growth of the OWE sector is not without its challenges. Some of the most daunting challenges stem from the environmental impacts of OWFs. In particular, the impact of OWFs on the maritime operations – and vice versa – is a pressing area of concern. There is immense burden on marine spatial planners, and consenting authorities, as they have to ensure that OWFs have a minimal impact on the safety and efficiency of shipping operations, whilst simultaneously maximizing renewable energy generation potential and finding optimal locations for OWTs. In order to find the right balance between maritime activities and OWE generation, stakeholders rely on risk management. A risk management process should be robust enough to ensure that there is no over- or under-design in terms of navigational safety, particularly in already-crowded marine areas. This thesis explores the risks posed by OWFs to safety of maritime operations, as well as the robustness of existing risk management processes, against the backdrop of the expected growth of the OWE sector. The aim of this work is to provide guidelines which can be used by decision makers to improve OWF-related maritime risk management processes. The fulfilment of this aim can help to ensure the safety of maritime operations around OWFs, and thus contribute towards the improved coexistence of the OWE and maritime sectors. The research background, aims, and objectives are elaborated in Chapter I. The main research itself is divided into three parts. The first part of the research (Chapter II) explores the specific risks that OWFs pose to maritime operations and formulates a problem description. A literature review of OWF application documents highlighted five broad maritime risk-types that can be associated with OWFs. Following this review, a large-scale survey was conducted in order explore the perceptions and concerns of seafarers towards these five risk-types. The results show that seafarers, on average, appear to be more than ‘Somewhat Concerned’ (a rating >3 on a scale of 5) with each of the five risk-types. In particular, seafarers are particularly concerned about risks that OWFs pose to safe navigation of passing
14 vessels, and give this particular risk-type a rating of 3.64 out of 5 on a population level whilst also ranking it as their top concern. The survey results were instrumental in confirming that despite a scarcity of accidents thus far, the maritime risks associated with OWFs are a real-world concern to seafarers. The findings also suggested that the level of concern with the various risk-types can be alleviated, to a certain extent, by improving risk management processes. To better understand the research gaps in existing risk management processes, the second part of the research (Chapter III) delves into the theories underlying risk, safety, and reliability. In parallel with a theoretical study of risk management principles, a review of risk assessment methods and models was also conducted. As the results of the seafarer survey highlighted navigational risk as a prime concern, there was a particularly strong emphasis on navigational risk assessment (NRA) tools. The literature review was further augmented by an interview study. In this interview study, consenting and planning authorities from various coastal states were asked to rate, and comment on various perceived shortcomings within existing OWF NRA processes. The findings of the literature review and the interview study identified several gaps within the NRA processes including a lack of harmonization and transparency, inadequate input data, and a need to provide ‘meaningful’ risk assessment tools for seafarers. In the third and last part of the research (Chapter IV), two solutions for the aforementioned shortcomings are proposed. The first solution is an overarching risk management framework that describes a harmonized and transparent NRA process. It is based on the findings of the literature review and the needs of stakeholders as identified in the second part of the research. The second solution describes a novel dynamic risk management method that can be used by operational end-users for safer navigation in congested areas, such as those in the vicinity of OWFs. This solution can also help to alleviate some of the burdens on spatial planners and consenting authorities by allowing spatial conflicts to be addressed dynamically instead of statically. As a conclusion (Chapter V), it is highlighted that the shipping industry proudly defend their status as traditional users of the sea and have a tendency to view the rise of OWFs quite warily. To counter this, and to ensure the continued development of OWFs, it is important for stakeholders from both the maritime and OWE sectors to come together, and agree on risk-based approaches that can help to optimally balance the needs of both industries.