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We report the development of a prototype Decision Support Tool (DST) for modelling the risks of spreading of non-indegenous invasive species via ballast water. The DST constitutes of two types of models: A 3D hydrodynamical model calculates the currents in the North Sea and Danish Straits, and an agent-based model estimates the dispersal of selected model organisms with the prevailing currents calculated by the 3D hydrodynamical model. The analysis is concluded by a post processing activity, where scenarios of dispersal are combined into an interim estimate of connectivity within the study area. The latter can be used as a tool for assessment of potential risk associated with intentional or unintentional discharges of ballast water. We discuss how this prototype DST can be used for ballast water risk management and outline other functions and uses, e.g. in regard to ecosystem-based management and the implementation of the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive.
Decision Support Tool; ballast water; invasive species; risk management; hydrodynamic model; agent-based model
Ecology and Evolutionary Biology | Environmental Health and Protection | Oceanography | Risk Analysis | Transportation
Hansen, Fleming T.; Andersen, Jesper H.; Potthof, Michael; Uhrenholdt, Thomas; Vo, Hong D.; and Lindén, Olof, "A Prototype Decision Support Tool for Ballast Water Risk Management using a Combination of Hydrodynamic Models and Agent-Based Modelling" (2013). NSBWO. 4.