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Title

A fuzzy extended DELPHI method for adjustment of statistical time series prediction: An empirical study on dry bulk freight market case

Document Type

Article Restricted

Publication Date

1-2012

Journal Title

Expert Systems with Applications

Volume Number

39

Issue Number

1

First Page

840

Last Page

848

Abstract

This paper investigates the forecasting accuracy of fuzzy extended group decisions in the adjustment of statistical benchmark results. DELPHI is a frequently used method for implementing accurate group consensus decisions. The concept of consensus is subject to expert characteristics and it is sometimes ensured by a facilitator’s judgment. Fuzzy set theory deals with uncertain environments and has been adapted for DELPHI, called fuzzy-DELPHI (FD). The present paper extends the recent literature via an implementation of FD for the adjustment of statistical predictions. We propose a fuzzy-DELPHI adjustment process for improvement of accuracy and introduced an empirical study to illustrate its performance in the validation of adjustments of statistical forecasts in the dry bulk shipping index.

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